We face danger whenever information growth outpaces our understanding of how to process it
Data driven predictions can succeed - and they can fail. It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise. Before we demand more from our data, we need to demand more from ourselves.
Prediction is important because it connects subjective and objective reality.
We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty
How can we apply our judgement to the data - without succumbing to our biases.
The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth
We focus on those signals that tell a story about the world as we would like it to be, not how it really is. We ignore the risks that are hardest to measure, even when they pose the greatest threats to our well-being. We make approximations and assumptions about the world that are much cruder than we realize. We abhor uncertainty, even when it is an irreducible part of the problem we are trying to solve.
Hedgehogs are type A personalities who believe in Big Ideas - in governing principles about the world that behave as they were physical laws. (Specialised, Stalwart, Stubborn, Order-Seeking, Confident, Ideological)
Foxes are scrappy creatures who believe in a plethora of little ideas and in taking a multitude of approaches toward a problem. (Multidisciplinary, Adaptable, Self-critical, Tolerant of Complexity, Cautious, empirical)
Foxlike approach to forecasting: - Think Probabilistically, Good predictions can and should change as more information becomes available, Look for consensus, Beware Magic-bullet forecasts
The word objective is sometimes taken to be synonymous with quantitative but it isn't. Instead it means seeing beyond our personal biases and prejudices and toward the truth of a problem.
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